Frelimo received the most votes in all of the 154 districts that had Provincial Assembly (Assembleia Provincial, AP) elections (there are no provincial assemblies in Maputo city and the diaspora). In 148 districts, Frelimo won more than 55% of the vote. The six where Frelimo did worst were:
Angonia, Tete: Frelimo 47.96%, MDM 4.99% Renamo 47.05%. The difference between Frelimo and Renamo was only 0.90%, which is 825 votes. The high level of nulos (invalid votes, 6.37%) and blank votes (7.41%) suggests that a significant number of opposition ballot papers were spoiled or incorrectly called blank, and thus that Renamo may have won Angonia district.
Beira, Sofala: F 48.25%, M 31.34%, R 20.11%
Nacala-Porto, Nampula: F 49.14%, M 1.79%, R 48.29%
Buzi, Sofala: F 50.47%, M 10.93%, R 37.58%
Mechanhelas, Niassa: F 53.66%, M 5.64%, R 40.70%
Quelimane, Zambézia, F 54.01%, M 4.85%, R 41.14%
What happened in Nampula?
In municipal elections in 2018, Renamo won 5 of 7 municipalities in Nampula province, and would have expected to do well in general elections of 2019, but instead it lost all districts.
Three municipalities have the same boundaries as districts, so it is possible to compare municipal elections and provincial assembly elections. In all three most people registered in 2018 and additional people registered in 2019. In all three, Renamo’s vote decreased significantly between the two elections.
Ilha da Moçambique is Renamo head Ossufo Momade’s birthplace and he would expect to do well, yet Renamo lost by a significant margin. Renamo’s vote was down by 10%, but MDM and Amusi votes seem to have gone to Frelimo as well as many newly registered voters.
In Nampula city turnout was down and Renamo lost a catastrophic 40% of its vote, while Frelimo doubled its vote.
In Nacala Porto total vote was down; combined Renamo and other opposition vote fell by more than 9000 while Frelimo vote was up by 4000 – enough to allow Frelimo to squeak through with a 600 vote margin. There had been tension in Nacala Porto during the campaign. At least 23 people were injured and two homes partially burned, including the house of a Frelimo secretary, in a fight in the Matalane neighbourhood between Frelimo and Renamo supporters on 19 September. After the polls closed on 15 October, Renamo supporters did not trust the count and gathered outside some polling stations. One person was killed, shot and beaten by the police, and four people were shot in the lower limbs as police tried to disperse the crowd at Sao Vicente de Paulo Secondary School, Nacala- Porto, at about 20h00. At Naherenque primary school, Mocone, Nacala-Porto, Nampula, voters stoned the polling station.
Renamo made official protests that polling station staff in both Nacala and Ilha de Moçambique invalidated ballot papers for Renamo by adding extra marks to make it look like the voter had voted for more than one candidate. The protests were rejected by the courts, along with many others, because they were submitted more than 48 hours after the count, or for lack of evidence.
